A Fire Management Simulation Model Using Stochastic Arrival Times

Book excerpt: Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the fire. Because the location of the fires cannot be predicted and because suppression units are not always available at a particular base location, the types of units sent and their arrival times vary This aspect of fire modeling, which is especially important in representing simultaneous fires and in choosing base locations, has not previously been examined.