Financial Modeling in Developing Countries

Book excerpt: This book contains a few of the critical financial management tools and lessons that entrepreneurs, investors and financial professionals need to succeed when doing business in developing markets.⟨br⟩Since moving to Addis Ababa in 2014, I have worked as an investor, advisor and owner-operator in Ethiopia, one of the world''s most exciting developing markets. I now co-manage Ethiopia Investments Ltd., a permanent capital investment vehicle focused on Ethiopia, and serve as General Manager for EQOS Global, Ethiopia''s first dedicated business process outsourcing (BPO) company.⟨br⟩This book has five chapters:* Chapter 1 - My Path to Ethiopia, One of the World''s Most Exciting Developing Markets* Chapter 2 - Why Financial Management Matters More in Developing Markets* Chapter 3 - The Forecast Financial Model* Chapter 4 - Sensitivity Analysis and Other Key Analyses* Chapter 5 - Final Advice for Entrepreneurs in Developing Markets⟨br⟩Chapter 2 walks through issues that are unique to the business environments of developing markets and how they are different than issues faced by companies in more developed markets: * Handling currency devaluations, * Setting dynamic pricing strategies* Managing the treasury function between home and base currencies* Understanding burn-rate* Planning for inflation shocks* Managing net working capital defensively* Forecasting raw materials needs* Planning for supply chain shocks* Forecasting market demands* Planning for flexible tax impacts* And many more...⟨br⟩Chapter 3 includes a detailed walk-through of a Microsoft Excel-based financial model that considers treatment of the issues discussed in Chapter 2.⟨br⟩Chapter 4 makes use of the Microsoft Excel-based financial model to give you greater control and understanding over the variables that impact your business. This chapter will help you answer questions like, "How does the change in the price of my products on the export market impact my cash burn-rate in my home market?" or "How would a large currency devaluation impact the price that an investor would pay for a stake of equity in my business?"⟨br⟩Finally, Chapter 5 includes advice for entrepreneurs, both local and expat, thinking about what it would take to set-up shop in a developing market. ⟨br⟩I wrote this book with the following six audiences in mind:* Entrepreneurs - This book is for entrepreneurs in developing markets who are either in the process of setting up a new business or considering it. A developing entrepreneur can be either a local entrepreneur or an immigrant (expat) entrepreneur and the advice in this book will be helpful no matter where you are from.* Investors - This book is for investors who are focused on developing markets and hoping to understand how the approach that works in more developed markets may look completely different for developing markets. * Financial professionals - This book is also for financial professionals such as CFOs, Finance Managers and Financial Analysts looking to understand how business practices in developing economies differ from more developed markets. * Investment Advisors - This book is also for investment advisors building advisory practices in developing countries who are hoping to bridge the gap between developing and developed markets.* Students - This book is also for students, both formal and informal, looking to learn more about business in developing countries. * Professionals - Finally, this book is for professionals interested in learning more about doing business in developing countries. ⟨br⟩This is the book that I wish I had when left my investment banking job and got on the plane from San Francisco to Addis Ababa in January 2014. Every lesson in this book has been learned by my team and me, sometimes painfully, and I hope that you find it to be helpful for you as you take on similar challenges, no matter where you are trying to operate.