Guide for co-elaboration of scenarios

Book excerpt: The Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) initiated the GCS-Tenure project in Indonesia, Uganda and Peru conducted the study to analyze the relationships between statutory and customary land tenure and how these relationships affect tenure security of forest-dependent communities, including women and other marginalized groups. Using a global comparative approach and standardized methodologies, the study analyzes the differential success or failure of policy and institutional innovations to enhance secure tenure rights. It also examines how these innovations identify strategies likely to lead to desired outcomes. The Participatory Prospective Analysis (PPA) is used as a first step by engaging key stakeholders. Through participatory meetings, all expert stakeholders progressively identify and develop a range of tenure security scenarios. They then elaborate actions in response to the scenarios identified. With the application of PPA, the research team aims to answer the following questions: What are the key factors influencing forest tenure security? What possible actions can mitigate negative implications (or reduce barriers impeding implementation) and promote positive changes (e.g. equitable access for women and marginalized groups? Who should be responsible for those actions? PPA aims to help decision makers understand the key drivers, challenges and future consequences of policy options.