The Euphrates Triangle

Book excerpt: For more than 4,000 years, lands irrigated by the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers have been the scene of violent conflict. History has been shaped by geography and, in particular, by access to water. The Southeastern Anatolia Project (Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi, or GAP) is a major reclamation and hydropower project that has been a Turkish Government priority since 1961. When complete, the 22-dam project will irrigate an additional 1.7 million hectares (about 4.2 million acres) in southeast Turkey. The GAP has direct consequences for Iraq and Syria. Both countries are heavily dependent on the waters of the Tigris and the Euphrates, and the impact of the project could ultimately reduce the flow of fresh water to Syria and to Iraq. These transboundary water issues have the potential to further destabilize an already tense region as the GAP approaches full development in the next 20 years. A 1988 article in U.S. News and World Report described a frightening scenario: November 12, 1993. War erupted throughout the Middle East today in a desperate struggle for dwindling water supplies. Iraqi forces, attempting to smash a Syrian blockade, launched massive attacks on the Euphrates River valley. Syria answered with missile attacks on Baghdad. The envisioned scenario has not materialized some 10 years after its dire prediction, but security conditions in the Tigris-Euphrates basin are unstable and the potential for "water wars" is still present. Resource scarcity is an important factor in any security analysis, and the realm of environmental security is subject to renewed debate in the United States. This book explores the relationship between regional security and the river environment of the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The focus will be on Turkey, because a review of Turkish history, politics, and military capability is central to an understanding of the security issues concerning the GAP. -- p. 1.