The Strategic Survey 2020

Book excerpt: Strategic Survey 2020 The Annual Assessment of Geopolitics The worst pandemic in a century tested governments, strained societies and frayed international ties during the year to mid-2020. But there was much more to this period than COVID-19. Climate change – another severe global challenge – grew more critical. US President Donald Trump was impeached, the United Kingdom left the European Union, and Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was killed. Strategic Survey 2020 provides a comprehensive overview of major developments in every region of the world, and in-depth analysis of key geopolitical and geo-economic issues: War The US–Taliban agreement to end the United States’ longest war; the persistence of other complex armed conflicts. Power China’s growing influence, especially in Europe and the South Pacific; Turkey’s force projection in the Middle East and beyond; the EU’s quest for strategic autonomy; the new geopolitics of the Red Sea; the implications of Ethiopia’s giant dam for relations between Nile states; the increasing use of economic sanctions as a tool of statecraft. Rules The decline of multilateralism; prospects for arms control; key gaps in international law; Central Asia’s connectivity; changes in the status of Jammu and Kashmir; dual legitimacy in Venezuela. Strategic Survey 2020 also assesses a diverse range of political leaders:  Progress of three ambitious reforming presidents: Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico. Foreign-policy legacies of two veteran leaders: Angela Merkel and Abe Shinzo. Trump’s challenges to both the transatlantic relationship and China. Evolution of and prospects for Vladimir Putin’s presidency. Strategic Survey 2020 is the indispensable guide to the events, actors and forces that de ned an exceptionally complex year. It highlights the geopolitical issues that will shape the international agenda in 2021.