A Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy

Book excerpt: Two reports issued by the Asian Dev't. Bank: (1) Describes a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippine (PH) economy. The model consists of sectors of private consumption, invest., gov't., trade, production, prices, money, & labor. The tracking perform. of the model is evaluated & found satisfactory. The PH gov't. must address its debt problem for it to achieve higher future growth. It is highly vulnerable to external shocks. (2) Assesses empirically the sustainability & feasibility of the gov't. debt in the PH using the No Ponzi Game criterion. Both historical data & forecasts generated by a quarterly macroecon. model of the Philippines are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried out to mimic future uncertainty. Illus.