MBS Ratings and the Mortgage Credit Boom

Book excerpt: Studies credit ratings on subprime and Alt-A mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) deals issued between 2001 and 2007, the period leading up to the subprime crisis. The fraction of highly rated securities in each deal is decreasing in mortgage credit risk; ratings contain useful info. for investors. There was also evidence of significant time variation in risk-adjusted credit ratings, incl. a progressive decline in standards around the MBS market peak between 2005 and mid-2007. Conditional on initial ratings, they observe underperformance (high mortgage defaults and losses and large rating downgrades) among deals with observably higher risk mortgages based on a simple ex ante model and deals with a high fraction of opaque low-documentation loans.