Averting the Old Age Crisis

Book excerpt: This study suggests that certain regional actions, such as concerted efforts by East Asian governments to liberalize trade and investment, can bring great benefits to the region and the rest of the world. It concentrates on the evolution of trade, its contribution to growth, and the positive impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth and export expansion in the region. But the report also states that the present global consensus on the benefits of liberalized trade provides an unprecedented opportunity for action. Four broad conclusions are reached on the direction of trade and investment liberalization in the region: 1) The region is too important a player in international trade to remain on the sidelines while the industrial countries make major policy decisions. 2) Existing trade imbalances between East Asia and the industrialized countries may be unsustainable. 3) The short-term balance of payments deficits arising from tariff cuts could be more than made up by long-term foreign direct investment flows. 4) A broad-based reduction in protection levels that applies to imports from all countries, whether in East Asia or not, would benefit the region and the rest of the world. Attention is also drawn to the merits of liberalization on a most-favored-nation (MFN) basis instead of through preferential arrangements.